"in 12 months I believe anything less than a full frame sensor (CCD ro CMOS) will just not cut the mustard."
This is actually a very interesting statement and question at the same time. Although I agree with you nat the moment, if you look at the efforts of Olympus with their 4/3 system, there seem to be still companies, who think differently.
There is no standard in chip design yet as it is in "film design". Nowadays 24x36 for film is the standard and different companies try to make the best body around it.
But with digital chips, nobody knows excatly who will be the winner at the end. I know that Contax for ex&le does not think about anything smaller then full size chip for the contax SLR-line seriously. For them this is the way to go and at the moment it seems to be the best "compromise", since we can use every lens as we are used to use it.
But they have to drop their pants first and show everybody that they really know how to build the right body with the right price and do the appropriate marketing to avoid such a reputation-desaster like with the ND.
In general I do not think that we are already at a point where we can be sure what the standard will be in 3 years. If technology advances in the speed as it was within the last 5 years, then it might be possible to have a smaller chip with the same performance as a fullsize chip and maybe also new lenses which fill the gap especially in the wide-angle area.
I am very curious how the success of the new Olympus system will be (look at www.olympusinfo.com). Hopefully it will be available til December. This could be a success or also a huge loss for them.
In the past, Olympus demonstrated that they know what they are doing. They build very good tiny SLR cameras and since some years they also prooved with the E-20 that they know something about digital photography.
Also Nikon is interesting to watch. They announced this new wideangle lens to compensate the disadvantage of the non-fullsize chip. So this is a different alternative to the problem of smaller chips.
And Leica did a smart move with the anouncement/rumour of the digital back: All Leica fans will wait now til 2004 before they buy something else. I think Leica knows that if they would not announce something for the future, everybody would at least try all the Canons, Nikons et alii digital cameras.
If you think about it, a rumour at least one year in advance (we do not know when in 2004 it will be available) is nothing worth. So many things can change til then. Leica can not seriously know what they have to deliver to compete seriously in 2004. And therefore I do not think that they risk to give to many details now already about it.
Otherwise they risk the same as Contax experienced with the ND. To announce something with detailed specs to early and then not beeing able to deliver in time and match the then changed demand of the users.
To say it over-pronounced this rumour/announcement is in my opinion "their last hope" to keep the clients in a good mood. Say something to give hope, but say not too much to get into trouble
Just my 2cents...
Dirk
This is actually a very interesting statement and question at the same time. Although I agree with you nat the moment, if you look at the efforts of Olympus with their 4/3 system, there seem to be still companies, who think differently.
There is no standard in chip design yet as it is in "film design". Nowadays 24x36 for film is the standard and different companies try to make the best body around it.
But with digital chips, nobody knows excatly who will be the winner at the end. I know that Contax for ex&le does not think about anything smaller then full size chip for the contax SLR-line seriously. For them this is the way to go and at the moment it seems to be the best "compromise", since we can use every lens as we are used to use it.
But they have to drop their pants first and show everybody that they really know how to build the right body with the right price and do the appropriate marketing to avoid such a reputation-desaster like with the ND.
In general I do not think that we are already at a point where we can be sure what the standard will be in 3 years. If technology advances in the speed as it was within the last 5 years, then it might be possible to have a smaller chip with the same performance as a fullsize chip and maybe also new lenses which fill the gap especially in the wide-angle area.
I am very curious how the success of the new Olympus system will be (look at www.olympusinfo.com). Hopefully it will be available til December. This could be a success or also a huge loss for them.
In the past, Olympus demonstrated that they know what they are doing. They build very good tiny SLR cameras and since some years they also prooved with the E-20 that they know something about digital photography.
Also Nikon is interesting to watch. They announced this new wideangle lens to compensate the disadvantage of the non-fullsize chip. So this is a different alternative to the problem of smaller chips.
And Leica did a smart move with the anouncement/rumour of the digital back: All Leica fans will wait now til 2004 before they buy something else. I think Leica knows that if they would not announce something for the future, everybody would at least try all the Canons, Nikons et alii digital cameras.
If you think about it, a rumour at least one year in advance (we do not know when in 2004 it will be available) is nothing worth. So many things can change til then. Leica can not seriously know what they have to deliver to compete seriously in 2004. And therefore I do not think that they risk to give to many details now already about it.
Otherwise they risk the same as Contax experienced with the ND. To announce something with detailed specs to early and then not beeing able to deliver in time and match the then changed demand of the users.
To say it over-pronounced this rumour/announcement is in my opinion "their last hope" to keep the clients in a good mood. Say something to give hope, but say not too much to get into trouble
Just my 2cents...
Dirk